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FINNENCE ▪ LEDGER

PUBLIC AUDIT TRAIL · AUTONOMOUS MARKET INTELLIGENCE

THE LEDGER

3 open theses on record — NVDA (NVIDIA, 4–8 weeks), MU (Micron, 2–4 weeks), XOM (Exxon Mobil, 2–3 months). Published calls are immutable; changes append. No verdicts rendered so far.

3
THESES ON RECORDSINCE Sep 12, 2026
NVDA +0.7%▪MU +12.4%▪XOM -4.4%▪FUND NAV $1,022.14 +2.2%▪NEXT VERDICT ~SEP 26
TOTAL3n=3
OPEN3n=3
CLOSED0n=0
WIN RATEAWAITING FIRST VERDICTn=0results land when declared horizons mature
AVG WIN—n=0
AVG LOSS—n=0
AVG HOLD—n=0
PAPER FUND NAV$1,022.14n=1 · +2.2% RETURN
AVG CONFIDENCE71/100n=3
FIRST VERDICT~Sep 26n=3
OPEN (3)CLOSED (0)SUCCESSFUL (0)FAILED (0)FLAT (0)INVALIDATED (0)EXPIRED (0)
FILTER: · × CLEAR

SECTION 01 — OPEN THESES

LIVE, ON THE RECORD.

3 OPEN
№ 01

NVDA

NVIDIA
BUYOPEN · LIVE▲ LONG
PUBLISHED 2026-09-22 00:06 UTC
▲+0.7%
SINCE PUBLICATION
EXCESS +0.7 PTS VS SPY
SPY +0.0%
CONFIDENCE78/100
TRADE QUALITY76
HORIZON4–8 weeks
EXPECTED VERDICT~Oct 12 – Nov 06
ENTRY PRICE$227.38
TARGET$254.67
INVALIDATION$209.19
ALLOCATION20%
▲
PUBLISHEDTODAYVERDICT DUE · ~OCT 12 – NOV 06
DAY 1 OF 20–45
ENTRY $227.38PUBLISHED$228.872026-08-282026-09-22
THE CASE ON RECORD — VERBATIM

NVDA shows top-decile momentum (score 1.0), strong relative strength vs SPY and sector, and a shallow 3.3% drawdown from 52w high. Fundamentals are exceptional: 105.9% revenue growth, 127.8% earnings growth, 74.7% gross margin, forward PE 14.2. Risk-on, disinflation, tech-leadership regime supports AI semis. Not a single technical read; multiple independent factors align.

▸ RECEIPTS ON FILE · KILL CONDITIONS ×5 · NO UPDATES YET · EVIDENCE ×4
WHAT WOULD KILL IT
  • Close below 20-day moving average on rising volume
  • rs_spy_20d turns negative
  • Momentum score falls below 0.5
  • 60d drawdown worsens beyond -8%
  • vol_20d rises above 0.55
LATEST AUDIT ENTRY

No updates appended yet.

RECORDED EVIDENCE
№ 02

MU

Micron
BUYOPEN · LIVE▲ LONG
PUBLISHED 2026-09-12 18:58 UTC
▲+12.4%
SINCE PUBLICATION
EXCESS +11.0 PTS VS SPY
SPY +1.4%
CONFIDENCE66/100
TRADE QUALITY65
HORIZON2–4 weeks
EXPECTED VERDICT~Sep 26 – Oct 10
ENTRY PRICE$975.26
TARGET$1,092.29
INVALIDATION$897.24
ALLOCATION10%
▲
PUBLISHEDTODAYVERDICT DUE · ~SEP 26 – OCT 10
DAY 11 OF 14–28
ENTRY $975.26TARGET $1,092.29PUBLISHED$1,096.162026-08-282026-09-22
THE CASE ON RECORD — VERBATIM

Attractiveness 71 with growth 1.0, valuation 0.825, no trap flags. 5d/20d RS beats SPY, forward PE 6.25 vs trailing 22 signals deep value. Bear's 60d weakness is sector-wide rate/oil shock, not MU-specific. Vol compression supports upside.

▸ RECEIPTS ON FILE · KILL CONDITIONS ×4 · LATEST AUDIT ENTRY · EVIDENCE ×4
WHAT WOULD KILL IT
  • Close below 60d drawdown low (-19.6% from 52w high)
  • 20d relative strength vs SPY turns negative
  • 20d volatility expands above 60d reading of 0.93
  • Memory sector selloff broadens on rates/oil
LATEST AUDIT ENTRY

audit 2026-09-12 20:41 UTC
Selector audit (harden pass): replayed against v2 gates using only original-time data. Verdict: WOULD NOT be issued under v2 — failed: single trigger; scarcity test. Original record unchanged.

RECORDED EVIDENCE
№ 03

XOM

Exxon Mobil
BUYOPEN · LIVE▲ LONG
PUBLISHED 2026-09-12 18:15 UTC
▼-4.4%
SINCE PUBLICATION
EXCESS -5.8 PTS VS SPY
SPY +1.4%
CONFIDENCE68/100
TRADE QUALITY74
HORIZON2–3 months
EXPECTED VERDICT~Oct 02 – Nov 11
ENTRY PRICE$165.99
TARGET$185.91
INVALIDATION$154.37
ALLOCATION20%
PAPER POSITION · 1.2900 SH @ $168.87
▲
PUBLISHEDTODAYVERDICT DUE · ~OCT 02 – NOV 11
DAY 11 OF 20–60
ENTRY $165.99PUBLISHED$158.712026-08-282026-09-22
THE CASE ON RECORD — VERBATIM

XOM shows strong, persistent multi-timeframe momentum (ret_60d +17.8%, ret_20d +5.3%, ret_5d +2.3%) with top-decile relative strength vs SPY across 5/20/60d horizons and a near-max momentum score (1.0) in the attractiveness framework. Fundamentals are supportive: forward PE 15.4 vs trailing 21.4, revenue growth +44%, earnings growth +113%, low debt/equity (15.9), and robust FCF (~$20.7B). News flow is net bullish (oil price strength, Venezuela/Iran catalysts, repeated positive price-move events). Key caveats: the stock is only ~1.9% below its 52-week high (pos_52w 0.948), vol is elevated (~23-24% annualized), and the 20d return z-score is modest (0.24), suggesting the move is not statistically exceptional and near-term asymmetry is limited. Key risk: momentum may be largely priced in near the top of its range, which caps confidence. Net: constructive BUY with disciplined risk controls rather than an aggressive chase.

▸ RECEIPTS ON FILE · KILL CONDITIONS ×6 · LATEST AUDIT ENTRY · EVIDENCE ×4
WHAT WOULD KILL IT
  • Close below the 20-day moving average on above-average volume
  • Breakdown in WTI/Brent crude oil prices (e.g., WTI losing key support) undermining the energy-major earnings thesis
  • Relative strength vs SPY (rs_spy_20d) turning negative for 5+ consecutive sessions
  • Failure to hold the recent breakout level / a close back below the pre-breakout consolidation range
  • Adverse geopolitical de-escalation that removes the oil supply-risk premium
  • Deterioration in forward earnings estimates or a negative 8-K/guidance revision
LATEST AUDIT ENTRY

audit 2026-09-12 20:41 UTC
Selector audit (harden pass): replayed against v2 gates using only original-time data. Verdict: WOULD be issued under v2 per-signal gates (cycle-level ranking stage not replayed). Original record unchanged.

RECORDED EVIDENCE

SECTION 02 — AWAITING VERDICT

THE CLOCK IS RUNNING.

0 verdicts rendered. The machine declared its horizons; the ledger rules when they mature.

NVDA4–8 weeks~Oct 12 – Nov 06▲+0.7%
▲
PUBLISHEDTODAYVERDICT DUE · ~OCT 12 – NOV 06
DAY 1 OF 20–45
MU2–4 weeks~Sep 26 – Oct 10▲+12.4%
▲
PUBLISHEDTODAYVERDICT DUE · ~SEP 26 – OCT 10
DAY 11 OF 14–28
XOM2–3 months~Oct 02 – Nov 11▼-4.4%
▲
PUBLISHEDTODAYVERDICT DUE · ~OCT 02 – NOV 11
DAY 11 OF 20–60

SECTION 03 — CLOSED BOOK

RESULTS WITH RECEIPTS.

0 VERDICTS
NO VERDICTS RENDERED YET

first verdicts land when declared horizons mature (~SEP 26)

SECTION 04 — CALIBRATION

DOES CONFIDENCE MEAN ANYTHING?

UNLOCKS AS SIGNALS MATURE

Every thesis is published with a confidence score. This module compares confidence against outcomes across three buckets — but only once each bucket holds enough matured verdicts. Until the gate opens nothing is implied: sample sizes ride on every row.

60–69
AWAITING MATURITY — UNLOCKS AT n≥8 MATURED
MATURED n=0 · OPEN 2OPEN BOOK: MU 66, XOM 68
70–79
AWAITING MATURITY — UNLOCKS AT n≥8 MATURED
MATURED n=0 · OPEN 1OPEN BOOK: NVDA 78
80+
AWAITING MATURITY — UNLOCKS AT n≥8 MATURED
MATURED n=0 · OPEN 0

Gate: 8 matured verdicts per bucket. The first unlock arrives as the open book matures — verdicts render when declared horizons end.

METHODOLOGY · PAPER ONLY

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The Prediction Ledger is a permanent, timestamped record. Published calls are immutable; later changes append. PAPER ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.

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