FINNENCE▪
00:00:00 UTCSYS ONLINE

PREDICTION RECORD · PUBLISHED 2026-09-12 18:58 UTC

№ MU-3

MU

Micron

BUYOPEN · LIVE▲ LONG
▲+12.4%
SINCE PUBLICATION
SPY +1.9%
EXCESS +10.5 PTS
▲
PUBLISHEDTODAYVERDICT DUE · ~SEP 26 – OCT 10
DAY 11 OF 14–28
CONFIDENCE66/100
TRADE QUALITY65
HORIZON2–4 weeks
EXPECTED VERDICT~Sep 26 – Oct 10
ENTRY$975.26
TARGET$1,092.29
INVALIDATION$897.24

SECTION 01 — THE LIFECYCLE

EVERY MOVE. TIMESTAMPED.

FLIGHT RECORDER
PENDINGDISCOVERED · PENDINGno linked detection record
2026-09-12 18:58 UTCSIGNAL CREATEDBUY · confidence 66 · quality 65
2026-09-12 18:58 UTCPUBLISHEDOriginal thesis locked — later changes append.
2026-09-22 13:30 UTCPAPER POSITION OPENEDSELL 0.192 @ $1,091.20
2026-09-12 20:41 UTCAUDITSelector audit (harden pass): replayed against v2 gates using only original-time data. Verdict: WOULD NOT be issued under v2 — failed: single trigger; scarcity test. Original record unchanged.
— DECLARED FUTURE · NOT YET HAPPENED —
PENDINGCLOSED · PENDINGAwaiting resolution.
2026-09-22 21:02 UTCEVALUATED10D · return +12.4% · benchmark +1.2% · alpha +11.2% · MFE +12.5% · MAE -7.5%

SECTION 02 — THE RECORD SO FAR

PRICE, WITH CONTEXT.

ENTRY $975.26TARGET $1,092.29INVALIDATION $897.24PUBLISHED 2026-09-12MFEMAE$1,096.162026-08-032026-09-22
ENTRY
$975.26TARGET
$1,092.29INVALIDATION
$897.24LAST
$1,096.16PUBLICATION
2026-09-12UPDATES
1
TARGET PROGRESS · PRICE+103.3%
MOVE SINCE PUBLICATION · MFE+12.4%
ADVERSE MOVE · MAE-5.3%

INTERACTIVE PRICE — TRADINGVIEW

THE MARKET RECORD.

INTERACTIVE CHART — LOADS WHEN VISIBLE
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SECTION 03 — WHY FINNENCE BELIEVED IT

THE CASE, ON RECORD.

Original thesis (immutable)

Attractiveness 71 with growth 1.0, valuation 0.825, no trap flags. 5d/20d RS beats SPY, forward PE 6.25 vs trailing 22 signals deep value. Bear's 60d weakness is sector-wide rate/oil shock, not MU-specific. Vol compression supports upside.

No structured audit record for this thesis (issued before the v2 selector). SEE THE UPDATES BELOW →

BULL CASE
  • 5d return +1.78% ranks 85th percentile, 20d +2.68% ranks 79th, with RS vs SPY +4.42% over 20d.
  • Forward PE 6.25 vs trailing 22.0, revenue growth 345.7%, earnings growth 1368.5%, gross margin 72.6%.
  • Attractiveness 71.27 with growth score 1.0 and valuation 0.825; no trap flags detected.
  • Volatility 20d 0.54 sits below 60d 0.93, drawdown -19.6% from 52w high offers recovery room.
BEAR CASE
  • MU sits 19.6% below its 52-week high with 60-day return -4.4%, showing momentum breakdown.
  • 60-day relative strength vs SPY is -6.6%, underperforming despite 20-day bounce.
  • Recent memory-sector selloff: SK Hynix -5%, Western Digital -3%, MU -3.4% on rates and oil.
  • Forward PE 6.25 with 13.7x earnings growth already prices in a full recovery.
INVALIDATION
  • Close below 60d drawdown low (-19.6% from 52w high)
  • 20d relative strength vs SPY turns negative
  • 20d volatility expands above 60d reading of 0.93
  • Memory sector selloff broadens on rates/oil
▸ TRADE QUALITY BREAKDOWN · COMPONENTS ×14

TRADE QUALITY BREAKDOWN

EVIDENCE STRENGTH
100%
SOURCE QUALITY
25%
CONFIRMATION
100%
FUNDAMENTAL SUPPORT
100%
CATALYST CLARITY
0%
VALUATION ATTRACTIVENESS
71%
PRICE CONFIRMATION
68%
REGIME ALIGNMENT
50%
RISK REWARD
50%
VOLATILITY PENALTY
55%
LIQUIDITY
100%
THESIS DURABILITY
31%
CONTRADICTION PENALTY
88%
HISTORICAL ALPHA
50%

SECTION 04 · MARKET REGIME AT PUBLICATION

THE WEATHER THEN.

REGIMEDISINFLATION
CONFIDENCE100%
CPI YOY3.35
DFF3.63
UNEMPLOYMENT4.10
CURVE 10Y2Y0.39

METHODOLOGY · PAPER ONLY

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Original thesis (immutable). This permanent, timestamped record preserves the published call; later changes append and never overwrite it. PAPER ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.

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