THE WIRE · № 76783
The US stock market has never been this fragmented: The 52-week correlation between the equal-weighted S&P 500 and the S&P 500 index is down to 0.67, its lowest level on record. This measures how closely the performance of the equal-weighted S&P 500 tracks the cap-weighted inde
01 THE MACHINE READ
WHY IT MATTERS.
Record-low correlation between equal-weight and cap-weight S&P shows extreme mega-cap concentration risk.
Market breadth fragmentation hits record extremes
Mega-cap earnings versus broad market
Concentration unwinds sharply
FULL DISPATCH
The US stock market has never been this fragmented: The 52-week correlation between the equal-weighted S&P 500 and the S&P 500 index is down to 0.67, its lowest level on record. This measures how closely the performance of the equal-weighted S&P 500 tracks the cap-weighted index, with a lower reading indicating a growing gap between the broader market and mega-cap stocks. The correlation has declined -0.25 points since August 2025. By comparison, before the 2020 pandemic, this figure remained between 0.95 and 0.99 for nearly 15 years. To put this into perspective, during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble, this metric never declined below 0.85. The S&P 500 is more concentrated than ever.
02 THE STORY SO FAR
THE RECORD, IN ORDER.
STANDALONE ITEM — NOT YET FOLDED INTO A DEVELOPING STORY.
03 WHO'S INVOLVED
ENTITIES ON FILE.
04 RECEIPTS
THE SOURCE RECORD.
1 SOURCES CONFIRMED05 PROPAGATION
WHAT THIS TOUCHES.
The US bull market is entering its 5th year. Since the October 2022 low, the S&P 500 has rallied +118%, outpacing the average bull market since WWII. This is also the 3rd-largest gain among bull markets at their 4th anniversary. Over this period, the index has returned +21.6%2026-10-12 22:05 UTC
We are witnessing a historic shift. The annual spread between the S&P 500's earnings yield and the 10Y Note yield is down to -1.5 percentage points, its lowest since 2009. Since 2022, this yield difference has fallen -440 basis points, its largest 5-year decline since the 1970s2026-10-13 00:07 UTC
Pasquariello: "since the dead lows of March 2009, S&P is up 16-fold (total returns). Along that path, there has been exactly one recession, and it lasted about two months" 2 months of recession in 16 years. Probably normal.2026-10-13 02:30 UTC
Big Board Names Near Highs While Smaller Shares Lag the Broad Tape2026-10-12 13:50 UTC
US stocks hover near their latest record in early trading on Wall Street2026-10-12 14:01 UTC
US stocks hover near their latest record in mixed trading on Wall Street2026-10-12 14:09 UTC
KEEP READING THE MACHINE
Summaries are generated and may contain errors — every claim links its sources.