The US government cannot afford higher interest rates. If interest rates average +150 basis points above CBO’s February projections by 2036, US deficits would increase by nearly $6 trillion over this period. The deficit would then rise to 8.8% of GDP, the highest level since WW

The US government cannot afford higher interest rates. If interest rates average +150 basis points above CBO’s February projections by 2036, US deficits would increase by nearly $6 trillion over this period. The deficit would then rise to 8.8% of GDP, the highest level since WWII, excluding 2008 and 2020. This would also push the US public Debt-to-GDP ratio to a record 133%, up from ~100% currently. If rates average +50 basis points above projections, deficits would increase by nearly $2 trillion, lifting the Debt-to-GDP ratio to 124% by 2036. Just weeks ago, the 10Y Note yield traded at ~5.30%, or ~100 basis points above CBO’s average projected rate over the next 10 years. The US government needs rate cuts.