THE WIRE · № 71979
Longshots Losing 98% of Time Dominate Kalshi, Polymarket Trading
01 THE MACHINE READ
WHY IT MATTERS.
Longshot-heavy prediction-market volume implies retail speculation and poor risk-adjusted returns, echoing speculative excess.
Prediction-market longshots show retail speculation losing
Regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets
Losses could sour broader retail risk appetite
FULL DISPATCH
Bettors on Polymarket and Kalshi often make longshot wagers, with around half of all trading volume on Kalshi involving potential returns of at least 1,000%. These longshot bets have resulted in significant losses for bettors, with money staked on "yes" longshots losing 15% on Kalshi and 27% on Poly
02 THE STORY SO FAR
THE RECORD, IN ORDER.
STANDALONE ITEM — NOT YET FOLDED INTO A DEVELOPING STORY.
03 WHO'S INVOLVED
ENTITIES ON FILE.
04 RECEIPTS
THE SOURCE RECORD.
1 SOURCES CONFIRMED05 PROPAGATION
WHAT THIS TOUCHES.
EU securities regulator gives crypto platforms 3 months to remove unauthorized stablecoins2026-10-08 15:23 UTC
KEEP READING THE MACHINE
Summaries are generated and may contain errors — every claim links its sources.