THE WIRE · № 70114
BREAKING: Since the start of 2025, US jobs numbers have now been revised down in 16 out of 20 months by a total of -793,000 jobs. This means that, on average, -39,650 jobs have been revised out of previously reported data each month during this period. The most recent August an
01 THE MACHINE READ
WHY IT MATTERS.
Persistent downward payroll revisions suggest the labor market was weaker than reported, which could eventually force a softer Fed stance but signals slowing growth.
Labor data has been consistently overstated
Next payroll report and revision cycle
Weak labor data signals slowing economy
FULL DISPATCH
BREAKING: Since the start of 2025, US jobs numbers have now been revised down in 16 out of 20 months by a total of -793,000 jobs. This means that, on average, -39,650 jobs have been revised out of previously reported data each month during this period. The most recent August and July jobs numbers were revised down by a total of -60,000. Revisions to nonfarm payrolls have consistently occurred since the start of 2023. If we apply this average to the +29,000 jobs add in September's report, it would imply a -10,650 contraction in nonfarm payrolls last month. This would also mark their 3rd monthly decline of 2026, following a -156,000 drop in February and -10,000 in July. What is happening here?
02 THE STORY SO FAR
THE RECORD, IN ORDER.
STANDALONE ITEM — NOT YET FOLDED INTO A DEVELOPING STORY.
03 WHO'S INVOLVED
ENTITIES ON FILE.
04 RECEIPTS
THE SOURCE RECORD.
1 SOURCES CONFIRMED05 PROPAGATION
WHAT THIS TOUCHES.
FED MINUTES: MOST OFFICIALS SEE ANOTHER RATE HIKE BY YEAR-END All Fed participants backed September’s 25bp rate hike, while most judged another increase would likely be appropriate by year-end, minutes show. Almost all saw inflation risks tilted to the upside, with some warning2026-10-07 18:00 UTC
FED: ALL 19 OFFICIALS SUPPORTED RATE HIKE AT SEPTEMBER MEETING2026-10-07 18:01 UTC
FED: MOST PARTICIPANTS SAW ANOTHER 2026 HIKE LIKELY APPROPRIATE2026-10-07 18:02 UTC
BREAKING: September Fed Meeting Minutes show that most Fed officials expect another interest rate hike by year-end. All 19 Fed officials backed the September interest rate hike. Almost all Fed officials see inflation risks tilted upward, with some warning AI could push demand a2026-10-07 18:03 UTC
CAPITAL ECONOMICS: CENTRAL BANKS MAY HIKE LESS THAN MARKETS EXPECT Capital Economics says central banks are unlikely to raise rates as far as investors currently price over the next year. While elevated bond yields have tightened financial conditions, much of that tightening re2026-10-07 18:05 UTC
The Federal Reserve has said that the US participation with Japan in intervening to support the Japanese yen in late July was a Treasury Department move, and that its own funds weren’t involved.2026-10-07 21:38 UTC
KEEP READING THE MACHINE
Summaries are generated and may contain errors — every claim links its sources.