History points to stronger equity returns ahead: Since 1928, the S&P 500 has risen +2.1% on average during the first half of October in US midterm election years, making it the strongest-performing half-month of Q4. Over this period, positive returns occurred 71% of the time, t

History points to stronger equity returns ahead: Since 1928, the S&P 500 has risen +2.1% on average during the first half of October in US midterm election years, making it the strongest-performing half-month of Q4. Over this period, positive returns occurred 71% of the time, the 3rd-best hit rate of the last quarter of the year. This follows a historically weak second half of September, which has seen a -1.1% decline on average. Subsequently, in the second half of October, the S&P 500's average return is +0.3%, with a 62% hit rate. November has historically been even stronger, with the first half averaging a +1.7% return and posting positive returns 79% of the time. Seasonality is turning more favorable for stocks.