FINNENCE ▪ THE WIRE FILE
THE WIRE · № 59085
News■ Unclear/unknown
The Term Spread As Recession Predictor, Post-2024
KINDNews
DIRECTION■ Unclear/unknown
SOURCES1
ENTITIES2
STORY SIZESTANDALONE
FIRST SEEN2026-10-01 04:12 UTC
LAST UPDATE2026-10-01 04:12 UTC
STATEactive
01 THE MACHINE READ
WHY IT MATTERS.
Questioning the term spread's predictive power weakens a widely used recession signal for positioning.
Term spread reliability debated post-2024
CATALYST TO WATCH
Further inversion or steepening data
MAIN RISK
Dismissing a signal that later works
02 THE STORY SO FAR
THE RECORD, IN ORDER.
STANDALONE ITEM — NOT YET FOLDED INTO A DEVELOPING STORY.
03 WHO'S INVOLVED
ENTITIES ON FILE.
CONTEXTRecession
AFFECTEDTreasury Bonds
04 RECEIPTS
THE SOURCE RECORD.
1 SOURCES CONFIRMED05 PROPAGATION
WHAT THIS TOUCHES.
→CORRELATIONshares Treasury Bonds
US futures dragged lower as oil prices and Treasury yields climb2026-09-30 13:10 UTC
US futures dragged lower as oil prices and Treasury yields climb2026-09-30 13:10 UTC
→CORRELATIONshares Treasury Bonds
Morning Bid: Inflation relief gives bonds little reprieve2026-10-01 04:33 UTC
Morning Bid: Inflation relief gives bonds little reprieve2026-10-01 04:33 UTC
→CORRELATIONshares Recession
Retired and Worried About a Recession? Here's Your Game Plan.2026-09-30 19:41 UTC
Retired and Worried About a Recession? Here's Your Game Plan.2026-09-30 19:41 UTC
→CORRELATIONshares Treasury Bonds
Sensex, Nifty open lower as elevated US Treasury yields weigh on sentiment2026-10-01 04:21 UTC
Sensex, Nifty open lower as elevated US Treasury yields weigh on sentiment2026-10-01 04:21 UTC
→CORRELATIONshares Treasury Bonds
US Bank Stocks Investors Are Watching As Higher Treasury Yields Reshape Margins - simplywall.st2026-10-01 05:18 UTC
US Bank Stocks Investors Are Watching As Higher Treasury Yields Reshape Margins - simplywall.st2026-10-01 05:18 UTC
KEEP READING THE MACHINE
Summaries are generated and may contain errors — every claim links its sources.