THE WIRE · № 58770
US equity and bond market volatility are moving in opposite directions: The Volatility Index, $VIX, to MOVE Index ratio is down to 0.15, its lowest since December 2014. This ratio has fallen -31.5% over the last 2 weeks as the Treasury market volatility intensified. Over this
01 THE MACHINE READ
WHY IT MATTERS.
Rising Treasury volatility while equity vol stays low signals bond-market stress that can spill into equities.
Bond vol diverges from calm equity vol
Treasury auctions and rate data
Divergence can persist before resolving
FULL DISPATCH
US equity and bond market volatility are moving in opposite directions: The Volatility Index, $VIX, to MOVE Index ratio is down to 0.15, its lowest since December 2014. This ratio has fallen -31.5% over the last 2 weeks as the Treasury market volatility intensified. Over this period, the MOVE Index has surged +25.9 points, or +32.1%, to 106.6, its highest since March 31st. At the same time, $VIX has declined -1.7 points, or -9.5%, to 16.0, well below its 2026 average of 18.3. To put this into perspective, during the March to April 2025 correction and the March 2026 pullback, this ratio jumped to 0.37 and 0.36, respectively, as equity volatility followed the surge in bond volatility. Is stock market volatility set to follow again this time?
02 THE STORY SO FAR
THE RECORD, IN ORDER.
STANDALONE ITEM — NOT YET FOLDED INTO A DEVELOPING STORY.
03 WHO'S INVOLVED
ENTITIES ON FILE.
04 RECEIPTS
THE SOURCE RECORD.
1 SOURCES CONFIRMED05 PROPAGATION
WHAT THIS TOUCHES.
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KEEP READING THE MACHINE
Summaries are generated and may contain errors — every claim links its sources.