THE WIRE · № 56422
What is happening here. The bond market is now pricing-in 4 more 25 basis point rate hikes by June 2027, a total of +125 basis points including September's hike. Just 9 months ago, markets had expected at least 100 basis points of rate CUTS by June 2027. That's a +225 basis po
01 THE MACHINE READ
WHY IT MATTERS.
A 225bp swing from cuts to hikes repricing raises discount rates and pressures long-duration assets.
Rate expectations swung sharply hawkish
Fed dot plot or CPI surprise
Market pricing may overshoot hawkishly
FULL DISPATCH
What is happening here. The bond market is now pricing-in 4 more 25 basis point rate hikes by June 2027, a total of +125 basis points including September's hike. Just 9 months ago, markets had expected at least 100 basis points of rate CUTS by June 2027. That's a +225 basis point differential in interest rate expectations in a matter of months. Meanwhile, the 10Y Note Yield is up nearly +70 basis points in 30 days with no comment from the Trump Administration. To top it all off, after a failed attempt at intervention, the US Treasury is now completely silent as long-term yields surge to their highest level since June 2002. The bond market is trading like 7%+ inflation is back and the Fed is about to start raising rates by 50 basis points at a time. This is unsustainable.
02 THE STORY SO FAR
THE RECORD, IN ORDER.
STANDALONE ITEM — NOT YET FOLDED INTO A DEVELOPING STORY.
03 WHO'S INVOLVED
ENTITIES ON FILE.
04 RECEIPTS
THE SOURCE RECORD.
1 SOURCES CONFIRMED05 PROPAGATION
WHAT THIS TOUCHES.
The punishing selloff in bonds is driving Treasury yields to ever more eye-catching milestones, with the 30-year bond yield reaching a 24-year high https://t.co/CGJHlyuTs82026-09-29 21:07 UTC
US stocks ended the session slightly lower, as government bond yields continued their ascent ahead of inflation and labor market data, while investors assessed comments from Federal Reserve officials for the path of interest rates. Lisa Bernhard reports https://t.co/WcgkloeyL7 ht2026-09-29 23:45 UTC
Short-Term JGBs Edge Higher, Tracking Gains in Similar-Dated U.S. Treasurys https://t.co/98hR5sSfqE2026-09-30 00:48 UTC
🚨🇺🇸 Wall Street ended slightly lower as Treasury yields climbed back toward levels not seen in decades, with the 30-year yield briefly topping 5.62%. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P 500 0.2% and the Nasdaq 0.1% as traders waited for fresh inflation and jobs data to figure out how mu2026-09-30 02:37 UTC
Markets Struggle As Treasury Yields Climb And Oil Slips2026-09-29 15:20 UTC
Stocks slip on Wall Street as rising Treasury yields pressure the market2026-09-29 16:19 UTC
KEEP READING THE MACHINE
Summaries are generated and may contain errors — every claim links its sources.