BREAKING: Global debt jumped by more than +$10 trillion in H1 2026, to a record $365 trillion. Emerging-market debt drove the increase, rising +$6.5 trillion, to a record $110 trillion, with most of the surge coming from governments and non-financial companies. Excluding China,
Why now
Thesis: Rising global leverage is a slow-burn risk
Catalyst to watch: Rate moves or refinancing stress
Main risk: Debt levels may prove sustainable
Why it matters
Record global debt, led by emerging markets, raises refinancing and credit risk over time.
Details
BREAKING: Global debt jumped by more than +$10 trillion in H1 2026, to a record $365 trillion. Emerging-market debt drove the increase, rising +$6.5 trillion, to a record $110 trillion, with most of the surge coming from governments and non-financial companies. Excluding China, emerging-market and developing-economy debt soared to a record $38 trillion. Global debt now stands at ~310% of global GDP, although the ratio has fallen -25 percentage points from its early-2021 peak, largely because inflation has boosted nominal GDP rather than because of deleveraging. Meanwhile, developed economies paid more than $3.3 trillion in interest on marketable government debt over the last year, exceeding estimated global spending on AI at $2.6 trillion, defense at $3.1 trillion, and clean energy at $2.3 trillion. This comes as annual government interest payments across the G7 alone surged +85% YoY. The global debt crisis is in uncharted territory.
Related assets & topics
ChinaInflationiShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF · EMBEmerging MarketsTreasury BondsCreditSources
- x · 2026-09-26 15:29 UTC