Global government debt has surged to unprecedented levels: The Debt-to-GDP ratio of emerging market economies is up to ~78%, its highest level in data going back to 1880. Since the 2008 Financial Crisis, this metric has more than doubled and surpassed the ~45% peak seen during
Why now
Thesis: Record EM debt levels raise sovereign credit risk
Catalyst to watch: EM sovereign downgrades or defaults
Main risk: Debt levels may be sustainable if growth holds
Why it matters
Record EM debt-to-GDP near 80% raises sovereign credit risk and refinancing vulnerability if rates stay high.
Details
Global government debt has surged to unprecedented levels: The Debt-to-GDP ratio of emerging market economies is up to ~78%, its highest level in data going back to 1880. Since the 2008 Financial Crisis, this metric has more than doubled and surpassed the ~45% peak seen during World War II. Before 2020, this ratio never exceeded 60% and is now approaching 80% for the first time. Meanwhile, the Debt-to-GDP ratio of advanced economies is up to ~108% and has been above 100% for the last 10 years. Before the 2008 Financial Crisis, this figure stood below 80%. Deficit spending has become a global crisis.
Related assets & topics
iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF · EMBEmerging MarketsTreasury BondsSources
- x · 2026-09-23 03:38 UTC