PREDICTION RECORD · PUBLISHED
PWR
Quanta Services
EXCESS —
SECTION 01 — THE LIFECYCLE
EVERY MOVE. TIMESTAMPED.
SECTION 02 — THE RECORD SO FAR
PRICE, WITH CONTEXT.
$705.94TARGET
$790.65INVALIDATION
$649.46LAST
$705.94PUBLICATION
2026-10-11UPDATES
0
INTERACTIVE PRICE — TRADINGVIEW
THE MARKET RECORD.
SECTION 03 — WHY FINNENCE BELIEVED IT
THE CASE, ON RECORD.
Original thesis (immutable)
PWR leads the data-center power theme with 20d RS vs sector +10.1%, momentum 1.0, and 41% revenue / 95% earnings growth. Momentum alone is insufficient, but the structural electrification capex cycle plus fundamental acceleration and sector confirmation justify a medium-term long despite rich valuation.
AUDIT — INTERNAL GATES, SHOWN FOR TRANSPARENCY
Quanta Services (PWR), electrical infrastructure and grid services provider
Momentum and relative strength at leadership extremes with fundamental growth confirming the theme
28-56 days aligns with theme horizon and medium-term capex cycle
Equity risk premium justified by 41% revenue growth and structural demand
Direct long in the leading data-center power infrastructure name
Expected annualized +78.2% vs hurdle +9.1%.
Worth sole slot: True · PWR is the highest-conviction expression of the data-center power theme with both momentum and fundamental confirmation, making it a strong candidate for a single new allocation.
direct retail exposure; accessibility score 100.0.
- AVGO — Strong fundamentals (revenue +85.5%, earnings +215.3%) and 0.8 convergence to the memory/AI-storage thesis, but price action is negative: 60d return -3.4% and 60d RS vs SPY -7.4%. R/R of only 1.2 is the weakest of the equity candidates. Wait for price confirmation (reclaim of 60d trend / positive RS) before committing capital.
- BTC-USD — High expected annualized return (109.5%) and 60d momentum (+30.6%), but 5d return -3.2% and RS vs SPY -4.4% show near-term deterioration, and evidence is price/event only (no fundamental, flow, theme, or macro support). R/R 1.5 is acceptable but the setup is not confirmed; defer until momentum re-accelerates.
- UUP — Extended, not early: 52-week range position 0.992, 20d z-score 1.90, and only 0.07% drawdown. Expected annualized 48.7% is the lowest of the candidates and barely exceeds the 9.06% cash hurdle on a risk-adjusted basis. Thin evidence (price/event only) and no convergence. Cash is the better risk-adjusted hold.
- 20d return +8.5%, 60d +11.9%, with 20d relative strength vs SPY +6.4%.
- Momentum score 1.0 and relative strength percentile 0.917 confirm leadership.
- Revenue growth 41.1% and earnings growth 94.7% support the electrification demand thesis.
- Data-center power news and GRID ETF strength corroborate sector tailwinds.
- Momentum and relative strength are maxed out, with 20d return at 91.7th percentile and RS20 at 91.7th percentile.
- Valuation is stretched: trailing PE 80.9, forward PE 35.7, price-to-book 11.0, leaving no margin for error.
- Quality is weak: gross margin 15.5%, operating margin 7.2%, debt-to-equity 67.8%, thin cushion for a capex-heavy contractor.
- Regime is growth_slowing and disinflation, which historically pressures high-multiple industrial cyclicals like PWR.
- Close below 20d return turning negative or breaking recent swing low
- Relative strength vs SPY and sector falls below zero
- Data-center power theme momentum reverses or GRID ETF weakens materially
- Guidance cut or backlog deterioration in next earnings
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TRADE QUALITY BREAKDOWN
SECTION 04 · MARKET REGIME AT PUBLICATION
THE WEATHER THEN.
METHODOLOGY · PAPER ONLY
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Original thesis (immutable). This permanent, timestamped record preserves the published call; later changes append and never overwrite it. PAPER ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.
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