Everyone is noticing. Here's Bloomberg: "The past couple of sessions have seen a resurgence in the ‘VaR Shock’ strategy on oil, with headlines emerging right around midday ET, when liquidity tends to thin during US hours. As rates push higher along with oil, the $110 level on
Why now
Thesis: VaR shock strategy resurges in oil and rates
Catalyst to watch: Brent approaching $110 threshold
Main risk: Jawboning decay could amplify volatility
Why it matters
VaR-shock dynamics in oil and rising rates can force deleveraging across multi-asset portfolios.
Details
Everyone is noticing. Here's Bloomberg: "The past couple of sessions have seen a resurgence in the ‘VaR Shock’ strategy on oil, with headlines emerging right around midday ET, when liquidity tends to thin during US hours. As rates push higher along with oil, the $110 level on Brent level is a threshold of concern for escape velocity, but the verbal jawboning is showing signs of decay. Following a report that the US administration is willing to reconsider a waiving of Iran sanctions and unfreezing of assets in reopening discussions on the nuclear issue, the Iran side rebuffed the headlines almost immediately, putting a floor on the kneejerk reaction lower in crude. This strategy could indeed keep oil players on their toes, especially at current elevated positioning levels (despite being off the highs). The nefarious feedback loop between oil and rates is way too potent at the moment for the momentum higher to break on mere headlines. "
Sources
- x · 2026-09-29 00:36 UTC