US Treasuries are experiencing one of the worst bear markets in history: The 30Y US Treasury price return index has dropped -60% since 2020, to ~107, matching its lowest level in 2000. In other words, in just 6 years, the index has erased nearly 20 years of gains. By compariso
Why now
Thesis: Historic long-bond bear market pressures duration holders
Catalyst to watch: Inflation prints and Treasury supply auctions
Main risk: Further yield spikes deepen bond losses
Why it matters
A -60% price-return drawdown in 30Y Treasuries with yields up 478bp shows duration risk and fiscal pressure, weighing on long-bond holders.
Details
US Treasuries are experiencing one of the worst bear markets in history: The 30Y US Treasury price return index has dropped -60% since 2020, to ~107, matching its lowest level in 2000. In other words, in just 6 years, the index has erased nearly 20 years of gains. By comparison, US nominal GDP has grown +63% over the same period. This comes as the 30Y Treasury yield has surged +478 basis points from its intraday low of 0.71% set in March 2020. To put this into perspective, its previous largest drawdown over the past 40 years was -35% during the 2008 Financial Crisis. We are witnessing a historic bond market decline.
Sources
- x · 2026-09-28 18:00 UTC