US bond market volatility is at historic levels. The MOVE index jumped +19% last week, its largest weekly increase since April 2025, following "Liberation Day." This index is also called the "VIX of bonds" and measures the yield volatility of 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasuries. T
Why now
Thesis: Bond volatility surges, third-largest weekly jump
Catalyst to watch: Auction demand and Fed communication
Main risk: Volatility spillover pressures equities
Why it matters
A 19% weekly MOVE jump signals bond volatility that raises risk premia across all asset classes.
Details
US bond market volatility is at historic levels. The MOVE index jumped +19% last week, its largest weekly increase since April 2025, following "Liberation Day." This index is also called the "VIX of bonds" and measures the yield volatility of 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasuries. This marks its 3rd-largest weekly increase since the 2022 bear market. The move comes as the 10Y Note Yield jumped +17 basis points last week, to 5.17%, its highest level since June 2007. At the same time, the 30Y Note Yield rose +16 basis points and surpassed 5.50% for the first time since June 2004. To put this into perspective, in the week ending March 17th, 2023, the MOVE Index surged +29% following the US banking crisis, when 3 regional banks collapsed. The US Treasury market is experiencing crisis-like volatility.
Related assets & topics
MOVE Bond Volatility Index · MOVE20Y+ Treasury ETF · TLTTreasury BondsInterest RatesSources
- x · 2026-09-27 23:37 UTC