It's official. As the bond market "meltdown" accelerates, the average interest rate on a 30Y mortgage in the US is up to 7.45%. That's up +150 basis points in 6 months and the highest since 2023, when inflation was at 6.4%+. What is happening? Let us explain. (a thread) https
Why now
Thesis: Bond meltdown transmits to housing affordability
Catalyst to watch: Treasury auctions and Fed signals
Main risk: Yields could stabilize if inflation eases
Why it matters
A bond market meltdown lifting mortgage rates 150bp in six months pressures housing demand and consumer credit.
Details
It's official. As the bond market "meltdown" accelerates, the average interest rate on a 30Y mortgage in the US is up to 7.45%. That's up +150 basis points in 6 months and the highest since 2023, when inflation was at 6.4%+. What is happening? Let us explain. (a thread) https://t.co/xAWnxSbifp
Related assets & topics
InflationHousingReal EstateSources
- x · 2026-09-24 23:54 UTC