FED MAY BE LOSING CONTROL OF LONG-TERM YIELDS CIFC says long-term Treasury yields are increasingly driven by forces outside the Fed’s control, including heavy government borrowing, $100+ oil, AI infrastructure spending and a global bond selloff. Last week’s rate hike reshaped t
Why now
Thesis: Long yields may be beyond Fed control
Catalyst to watch: Weak auctions and rising term premium
Main risk: View is one firm's opinion, not consensus
Why it matters
If long yields are driven by borrowing, oil and AI capex rather than the Fed, rate policy loses traction over the long end.
Details
FED MAY BE LOSING CONTROL OF LONG-TERM YIELDS CIFC says long-term Treasury yields are increasingly driven by forces outside the Fed’s control, including heavy government borrowing, $100+ oil, AI infrastructure spending and a global bond selloff. Last week’s rate hike reshaped the yield curve but failed to lower overall yields. Weak demand at the latest 5-year Treasury auction reinforces the risk that yields remain biased higher despite further Fed tightening.
Related assets & topics
OilFederal ReserveTreasury BondsInterest RatesSources
- x · 2026-09-24 17:58 UTC