Why America is missing a million home sales a year
Why now
Thesis: Rate lock-in reshapes housing supply dynamics
Catalyst to watch: Mortgage rate moves below 7% or Fed cuts
Main risk: Affordability strain could curb new-home demand
Why it matters
Mortgage rates above 7% freeze resale supply while builders buy down rates, splitting housing winners and losers.
Details
The 30-year fixed crossed 7% this week for the first time in 20 months. New home sales still jumped to an eight-month high in August. Logan Mohtashami explains why both are true at once: builders can buy mortgage rates down toward 6% and the resale market cannot. He also argues the housing shortage
Related assets & topics
HousingReal EstateInterest RatesConsumerSources
- youtube · 2026-09-25 00:00 UTC