🇮🇷 🇺🇸 An Iranian official flying to New York has to seriously consider whether he gets to fly home. Political scientist Robert Pape doesn't hedge on whether arrest is a possibility: "You don't go into this even just getting on the plane, much less landing in New York City, 100%
Why now
Thesis: US-Iran legal tensions simmer
Catalyst to watch: Arrest or diplomatic incident
Main risk: Escalation disrupts energy markets
Why it matters
Iranian official travel risk underscores legal escalation between US and Iran, a slow-burn geopolitical risk.
Details
🇮🇷 🇺🇸 An Iranian official flying to New York has to seriously consider whether he gets to fly home. Political scientist Robert Pape doesn't hedge on whether arrest is a possibility: "You don't go into this even just getting on the plane, much less landing in New York City, 100% confident you're coming back. I don't care what they say, what they promise you." Anything promised in the morning can be reversed by lunch, so Tehran runs a full internal debate before letting anyone travel, and every channel that closes because nobody trusts a guarantee makes the eventual deal harder to reach. @ProfessorPape
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- x · 2026-09-22 23:30 UTC