Quite a divergence: CCC OAS 919bp, +150bp in 3 months: 99th percentile IG OAS 75bp / BB 150bp / B 252bp: 0–4th percentiles
Why now
Thesis: CCC spreads at 99th percentile signal severe low-quality credit stress
Catalyst to watch: Default wave or credit spread widening
Main risk: Late-cycle divergence worsens
Why it matters
CCC spreads at the 99th percentile while IG/BB/B sit at cycle tights signals severe stress at the lowest credit quality, a classic late-cycle divergence.
Details
Quite a divergence: CCC OAS 919bp, +150bp in 3 months: 99th percentile IG OAS 75bp / BB 150bp / B 252bp: 0–4th percentiles
Sources
- x · 2026-09-22 03:36 UTC