Stocks are becoming more sensitive to sharp moves in the Treasury market: The 30-day correlation between the ICE BofA MOVE Index and the S&P 500 is up to -0.58, its highest since mid-June. The MOVE index, also called the "VIX of bonds," measures the yield volatility of 2Y, 5Y 1
Why now
Thesis: Treasury volatility now transmits directly into equities
Catalyst to watch: MOVE index and yield swings
Main risk: Correlation can reverse quickly
Why it matters
Rising stock-bond volatility correlation means Treasury yield swings now transmit directly into equity drawdowns.
Details
Stocks are becoming more sensitive to sharp moves in the Treasury market: The 30-day correlation between the ICE BofA MOVE Index and the S&P 500 is up to -0.58, its highest since mid-June. The MOVE index, also called the "VIX of bonds," measures the yield volatility of 2Y, 5Y 10Y, and 30Y Treasuries. This means rapid increases in bond volatility are now translating into larger declines in stock prices. A similar phenomenon took place in March this year and in April 2025, when violent moves in the MOVE Index exacerbated market selloffs. The index has now surged +8.0% over the last week, to 80.7 points, near its highest level since mid-May. Bond volatility is again becoming a key driver of stocks.
Related assets & topics
S&P 500 · ^GSPCMOVE Bond Volatility Index · MOVEVIX Volatility Index · ^VIXTreasury BondsSources
- x · 2026-09-20 16:29 UTC