Prepare for an incredibly eventful Q4. We now have the Fed expected to raise interest rates again by year-end with midterm elections 45 days out. Meanwhile, oil prices are back above $100/barrel amid record diesel prices and a global fuel shortage. This comes as 10Y Note Yield
Why now
Thesis: Fed hikes, 10Y above 5%, oil above $100 tighten conditions
Catalyst to watch: Fed decision or oil supply headlines
Main risk: Valuation pressure across risk assets
Why it matters
Combination of expected Fed hikes, 10Y above 5%, and oil above $100 tightens financial conditions and pressures valuations.
Details
Prepare for an incredibly eventful Q4. We now have the Fed expected to raise interest rates again by year-end with midterm elections 45 days out. Meanwhile, oil prices are back above $100/barrel amid record diesel prices and a global fuel shortage. This comes as 10Y Note Yield rises above 5.00%, the stock market nears record highs, and the AI Revolution continues to accelerate. And, earnings season is set to begin in just a few weeks with big tech companies currently investing $1+ trillion in annual CapEx. Monetary policy, geopolitics, energy, elections, and AI are all converging. We will be breaking it all down in real-time right here on X.
Related assets & topics
Earnings SeasonInterest RatesGeopoliticsEnergyOilFederal ReserveSources
- x · 2026-09-19 18:23 UTC