Investors are becoming extremely bearish: 53.3% of individual investors expressed bearish sentiment over the next 6 months in the AAII survey for the week ending September 17th, the highest reading since May 2025. Bearish sentiment has risen +15.7 percentage points over the las
Why now
Thesis: Extreme retail bearishness is a contrarian rebound signal
Catalyst to watch: Sentiment reversal or positioning unwind
Main risk: Bearishness persists as market falls
Why it matters
Extreme retail bearishness is a contrarian sentiment signal that historically precedes short-term rebounds when positioning is washed out.
Details
Investors are becoming extremely bearish: 53.3% of individual investors expressed bearish sentiment over the next 6 months in the AAII survey for the week ending September 17th, the highest reading since May 2025. Bearish sentiment has risen +15.7 percentage points over the last 2 weeks, the largest 2-week increase since March 2026. Meanwhile, just 28.8% of individual investors were bullish over the same period, the lowest reading since September 2025. As a result, the bull-bear spread is down to -24.5 percentage points, the widest gap since the first week of May 2025. This is also comparable to readings seen during the March-April 2025 pullback and the 2022 bear market. Are we setting up for a short squeeze?
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- x · 2026-09-18 21:16 UTC