There you have it folks. We now have all the relevant data that we will get prior to the September 16th Fed meeting. US PPI inflation is up to +5.4%, the US economy tripped expectations and added +162,000 jobs in August, and US CPI inflation is at +3.4%. We also have $100+ oil
Why now
Thesis: Hot PPI, CPI, solid jobs, $100 oil reinforce hawkish Fed.
Catalyst to watch: September 16th Fed meeting decision.
Main risk: Higher-for-longer rates pressure risk assets.
Why it matters
Combined hot PPI, CPI above target, solid jobs, and $100+ oil reinforce a hawkish Fed backdrop, raising the risk of higher-for-longer rates.
Details
There you have it folks. We now have all the relevant data that we will get prior to the September 16th Fed meeting. US PPI inflation is up to +5.4%, the US economy tripped expectations and added +162,000 jobs in August, and US CPI inflation is at +3.4%. We also have $100+ oil prices, record high diesel prices, and inflation at least 140 basis points above the Fed's 2.0% target. Keep in mind, whatever the Fed does, they will NOT be providing guidance. Needless to say, next week is going to be a highly eventful week. Turn on our post notifications at @KobeissiLetter to receive real time analysis as this develops.
Sources
- x · 2026-09-11 13:20 UTC