Black Sea Disruption Could Push Food Prices Higher | Presented by CME Group
Why now
Thesis: Black Sea disruption tightens wheat supply, supporting grain prices
Catalyst to watch: Escalating shipping or export disruptions
Main risk: Supply routes reopening
Why it matters
Reduced Russian exports and Black Sea shipping risk tighten wheat supply, supporting grain prices and food inflation.
Details
Wheat prices are near three-year highs as Russian exports run at less than half last year’s pace and Ukrainian shipping lanes remain under threat. With global food prices at their highest since late 2022, could further Black Sea disruption drive up the cost of bread, cereal and other everyday staple